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    HOLOGIC (HOLX)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$79.64Last close (Jul 29, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$79.00Open (Jul 30, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.64(-0.80%)
    • Hologic's Molecular Diagnostics segment, excluding COVID assays, grew 10.5% in Q3, demonstrating strong performance driven by the Panther platform and increasing utilization of their assay menu, particularly in sexual health and virology testing.
    • Significant international growth opportunities are evident, with expanding adoption of digital cytology and HPV co-testing, especially in countries like Germany, leveraging enhanced relationships with ministries of health to drive market expansion.
    • Despite a temporary issue in Skeletal Health, Hologic's core businesses—Diagnostics, Breast Health, and Surgical—are performing strongly, with expectations to return to pre-pandemic gantry placement levels in Breast Health by 2025, indicating robust future growth.
    • Operational challenges in the Skeletal Health division: Hologic is experiencing supply chain issues due to a supplier nonconformance, leading to a temporary stop ship of products in its smallest business segment. This may result in delayed or lost revenue and uncertainty regarding the recovery timeline. , ,
    • Increased competition in molecular diagnostics: Emerging point-of-care platforms, particularly in sexual health and virology, are seeing strong growth. This increased competition may impact Hologic's market share and growth prospects in these areas.
    • Slower placement of Panther instruments: Panther instrument placements remain below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a potential slowdown in instrument sales growth. This could limit future revenue expansion and increase reliance on the existing installed base for growth.
    1. 4Q Guidance and Skeletal Health
      Q: Has anything changed in the core business outlook for 4Q?
      A: The guidance reduction is entirely due to a temporary issue in our non-core Skeletal Health business, specifically a $16 million headwind in Q4 from a supplier issue. Our core businesses—Diagnostics, Breast Health, and Surgical—are performing well, and we feel really good about them.

    2. Margin Outlook into 2025
      Q: How are margins expected to trend going forward?
      A: We expect full-year operating margins between 30% to 31% in 2024, slightly below pre-pandemic levels of 31.5%, due to recent acquisitions and higher supply chain costs. By exiting Q4, we'll be around 31.5%, and we have confidence that margins in 2025 will return to pre-pandemic levels as these issues are resolved.

    3. EPS Growth Expectations
      Q: Is high single-digit EPS growth reasonable for next year?
      A: While we're not providing 2025 guidance yet, we aim to grow earnings faster than revenue. With 5% to 7% revenue growth, high single-digit to low double-digit EPS growth is reasonable. We'll achieve this through margin expansion, share repurchases, and potential tax rate favorability.

    4. Recent Acquisitions Progress
      Q: Can you update on Boulder and Endomag integrations?
      A: We're seeing great success with Boulder, expanding beyond pediatrics into fast-growing areas like thoracic surgery. With Endomag, we just closed the acquisition and are excited about its prospects, leveraging our strong channels and customer relationships to grow the business.

    5. Panther System Placements
      Q: Are Panther placements returning to pre-COVID levels?
      A: Panther placements remain below pre-COVID levels, but we're seeing modest increases, which we consider positive. Our focus is on expanding utilization of existing systems rather than high placement rates.

    6. BV/CV/TV Assay Growth
      Q: How significant is the BV/CV/TV assay revenue, and what's its potential?
      A: The BV/CV/TV assay revenue is roughly $40 million per quarter, and it has the potential to become our largest assay, indicating significant growth ahead.

    7. Skeletal Health Revenue Impact
      Q: Will delayed Skeletal Health revenue be recovered next year?
      A: The delayed revenue isn't lost; we expect to recover it, possibly providing a modest tailwind in fiscal 2025. We anticipate resolving the issue and resuming normal operations by the beginning of fiscal 2025.

    8. Cytology Business Dynamics
      Q: What's causing lumpiness in the cytology business?
      A: The lumpiness is due to a change in a third-party vendor last year affecting comparisons, but there are no market shifts in cytology usage. Our digital cytology is progressing well, especially in Europe, with positive acceptance in the U.S.

    9. Panther Assay Utilization
      Q: How many assays are customers running on Panthers?
      A: Over 55% of new customers run two or more assays. In the U.S., over one-third of customers run four or more assays, up from under 20% in 2019. The likely target range is 4 to 6 assays per Panther.

    10. International Cytology Growth
      Q: What's driving cytology growth outside the U.S.?
      A: Strong acceptance of our digital cytology is driving growth internationally, especially where there are fewer cytologists. Our strengthened relationships with health ministries are helping us influence guidelines, such as Germany's adoption of co-testing for cytology and HPV.

    11. Tax Rate Optimization
      Q: How do you plan to lower the tax rate?
      A: By optimizing our operations and supply chain, particularly leveraging manufacturing in Costa Rica and integrating new acquisitions, we aim to contribute to a favorable impact on our tax rate over time.

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